Month: September 2010

Great Recession Over?

ICangles Investment Post…

Earlier this week the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of the economy, declared that the so-called Great Recession ended in June 2009. Having started in December 2007 and lasting for 18 months, it represented the longest recession since the end of the Great Depression. The NBER found that a mix of economic indicators it tracks began a period of sustained growth starting last June, driving the economy as measured by gross domestic product (GDP) higher. But whether you consider the recession over depends a lot on your definition of a recession.

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Reading the Unemployment Tea Leaves

ICangles Investment Post…

Looking into and understanding the devil of the details in government employment and economic reports reveals that the job market is likely to remain poor for some time to come. This most recent report however was marginally positive. The Labor Department reported on Friday that the unemployment rate rose slightly from 9.5 percent in July to 9.6 percent in August. In the stock market everything is relative, and relatively speaking the results of a slight increase were marginally positive because economist expected an even bigger rise in unemployment. The stock market response might have been called a relief rally had it been stronger, but it was more of a relief pop with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising a little over 100 points.

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