Month: December 2014

Technically Troubling

I.C. Angles Investment Post…

Despite worrisome characteristics around this bull market, it was not until October of this year that I recommended long-term investors move to underweight stocks. I had remained reluctantly bullish previously, because from a technical perspective of looking at price and volume behavior, including the 125-day simple moving average, the market was simply too robust to bet against in my opinion. But that has changed, and there are several technical indicators, beyond simple moving indicators, that are now cause for concern. It is said no one rings a bell at a market top. That is true. Nevertheless there do tend to be warnings, often recognized in hindsight. And there are some technical warning bells now ringing that previously were silent. Whether they are prophetic or a false alarm, will only be known with the benefit of time. However, given other risk factors, including the overpriced nature of this market, my advice remains to underweight stocks.

(more…)

Advertisements

Downside of Falling Oil Prices

I.C. Angles Investment Post…

Business journalists are celebrating the approximately 40 percent decline in oil prices from their June highs, as a positive development for the economy. Their reasoning is simplistic. Lower oil prices mean more money in the pockets of consumers, which means more spending by Americans and hence more economic growth. But three other factors argue that falling oil prices actually represent a net negative for the U.S. economy, despite the positive of American consumers spending less on energy.

(more…)